Deep Impressions

  With the global developments of the last few years it is time we rethink the format and the definition of democracy.    So here is a wishful speech to the guardians of democracy. ------------ ------------- ---------------- x  ------------ ------------- ----------------  ( In case you wish you listen this blog,  please CLICK HERE )   From settlements to territories,  From territories to empires And from empires to nations     …... civilization has come a long way in search of structures and conventions through which a human population connects, cooperates and controls itself.     Community chieftains gave space to kings. Kings were taken over by emperors and emperors surrendered to the democratic forces.   In this process of evolution, democracy has not only proven to be the most stable but also the most widely accepted structure. However, to believe that democracy is the last word in governance, would itself be a challenge to the spirit of democracy – which is ‘openness to dissent’.

    Analysing trends of human past over centuries & millenniums has always been an intriguing discipline.   Researchers inclined towards pre-historic period enjoy studying evolutionary patterns across time periods classified as stone age, bronze age and iron age. Those inclined towards documented history find it absorbing to dissect human survival in strategic war fares during periods known as Roman era, Byzantine era, Mughal era, Ming dynasty era etc. And those with mindset of an economist find it fascinating to analyse human prosperity during eras classified as first industrial revolution and second industrial revolution.   The nomenclature and classification of eras in the post World War-II period may yet be an incomplete exercise, however, independent of names that are ultimately conferred upon, it remains undisputable that the dominance of Computing Technology will play a decisive role in such a nomenclature.   The origin of computing technology has been traced to the birth of

  The K-shaped recovery can bring up surprises not just for economists but also for the marketers                           ---------------      ---------------      ---------------      ---------------         Most readers were convinced with my previous blog “Why Indian real estate will bottom out in 2021 ?” . However, they were not clear how could the housing demand increase despite so many job losses and salary cuts.     The answer lies in the uniqueness of K-shaped recovery which is likely to dominated the post-pandemic economy. In such a recovery, certain sectors will do much better than the others and certain players within a sector will perform much better than the others. This will result in a skewed and an unequal distribution of income.   Such a non-uniform growth is not something that any national economist would aspire for. However, such a recovery could offer a favourable pitch for rising demand for new homes   Unlike GDP which is driven by rising average incomes, the dem

Demand forecasting is a complex exercise and more so when it comes to Real Estate ; as homes are bought for consumption, for investment and at times for investment-cum-consumption. However, a broad-based analysis can definitely help chart out a trend.                          ----------- xx ------------ xx ------------- Demand forecasting in real estate has always been a puzzle for economists. Economics suggests consumption products like iPhone, cars, mobile data, have a falling demand curve which means as price falls their consumption increases. For investment products like equities, as prices fall, trading volumes normally come down indicating lowered demand. However, when it comes to real estate, demand forecasting becomes a complex exercise, some buy homes for consumption, some for investment and there are other who look at homes for investment-cum-consumption. Therefore, demand forecasting has always remained a puzzle. However, a broad-based analysis can definitely throw a good a

  the elusive equilibrium    November commences the wedding season in India. The previous two years had some high profile weddings which were followed by big time criticism on the amount of expenditure. Cut to 2020, the economy is missing the weddings (and events) that generate huge employment for decorators, caterers, tailors, beauticians,  baja wala  et al. Post-Coronavirus, the virtues of the bad guy have started becoming conspicuous.   So, which is the true face of weddings – A Wasteful Expenditure or An Employment Generator?    Probably, answering it is as difficult as answering whether nations should aspire for equal distribution of wealth or should live with unequal distribution. Though majority would support the former but people with surplus wealth also have high propensity to take risk. And risk is key to innovation. Therefore, if all citizen have the same wealth, there will be no surplus wealth, thus no appetite for risk and therefore low levels of innovation. Such an egalit

  Lockdown Learning : Gandhi’s Strategic Prowess   The choice of Salt and Charkha were not just about revolution or nationalism. They were part of Gandhi's strategic decision making                       ----------------------------     ----------------------------  ----------------------------   During the Lockdown, my CXO friends are faced with two common organisational dilemmas. The former is about the challenges in growing demand for their products and the latter relates to the lack of energy and creativity among employees in the Work From Home (WFH) environment. Incidentally, the solution to both lies in Gandhian thinking. And this is not about Gandhian philosophy but about Gandhi’s prowess with Strategic Thinking.     If one finds generating consumer demand as a challenge in today’s crisis, one needs to imagine the travails in selling a product like swaraj to Indians who were struggling in crisis for  do waqt ki roti  ?    In such testing times, the demand for swaraj was gene